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Economic Research

USA 2023

Labor shortages are likely distorting signals(December 8, 2023)(156KB)

Importing goods deflation(December 5, 2023)(184KB)

October's jobs report supports continued Fed pause(November 3, 2023)(163KB)

Making sense of September's job growth(October 6, 2023)(144KB)

Consumers didn't surprise in August(September 29, 2023)(142KB)

August rebound and resurging energy prices(September 14, 2023)(145KB)

Easing labor market and slow burning inflation(September 1, 2023)(170KB)

A hawkish tone, but for good reason(August 29, 2023)(187KB)

Disinflation momentum is building(August 11, 2023)(166KB)

More jobs and more productivity(August 4, 2023)(184KB)

A soft landing requires strong assumptions(July 28, 2023)(167KB)

Price disturbances vs inflation(July 13, 2023)(158KB)

The Fed is out of excuses(July 7, 2023)(163KB)

Predicting consumer behavior(June 20, 2023)(202KB)

Little give in the labor market(June 2, 2023)(156KB)

A normalizing economy (May 19, 2023)(169KB)

Strong jobs growth but weak productivity (May 5, 2023)(205KB)

Growth is unlikely to last (April 28, 2023)(197KB)

Inflation and bank credit(April 24, 2023)(152KB)

The labor market for goods industries is starting to cool (April 7, 2023)(158KB)

Uncertainty ahead for inflation and growth (March 31, 2023)(145KB)

Macro vs financial stability (March 24, 2023)(265KB)

The labor market remains defiant (March 10, 2023)(161KB)

Eyes are back on goods inflation and manufacturing (March 3, 2023)(217KB)

Focus on the signal and not the noise (February 17, 2023)(169KB)

Strong demand or the calm before the storm? (February 3, 2023)(154KB)

Wage growth has likely peaked, but risks remain (January 31, 2023)(147KB)

The economy is showing signs of weakness (January 27, 2023)(162KB)

How deep will the recession be in the US? (January 25, 2023)(147KB)

There is still a demand problem in the US (January 6, 2023)(158KB)